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[continued from
part 1]
Safety
Issues
Q: Pods need seatbelts/airbags, a next stop
panic button, and interior closed circuit TV (CCTV) and communications.
Vehicles may not appear to need these technologically, but people unused to
driverless vehicles will likely want the security of added safety features
built in.
No vehicle is or can be perfectly safe, with no risk of injury or death.
Safety is a main goal, and key trait, and design strategy. Maximum user
safety is more important than user psychology. Suspended vehicles, narrow
vehicles and track, elevated track, monorails, and magnetic levitation, have
many safety traits. SkyTran adds systems to these. We intend to create the
safest, or among the safest, transit systems ever built. Yet, it will likely
be only 10,000 to 1,000,000 times safer than cars. Calculations reveal only
so much. Safety has many variables. It is hard to know for sure without
empirical data from running systems. Some team members have lost loved ones
in car crashes.
Precedents, reasons:
1) Elevators, lifts. Most people in developed lands often use, and are
very used to, driverless vertical transport vehicles, so much so that few
users even recognize elevators (lifts) as vehicles. Elevator users need no
extra safety systems beyond the ones usually included: automatic brakes, one
alarm button, one emergency voice channel in newer units. Elevator death
rates are very low. But elevators move far more slowly than most driverless
horizontal transport vehicles, so more safety systems are sensible.
2) Constrained dimensionality: 1D tracks. One dimension (1D) motion is far
more confined and controlled than 2D motion, with far less freedom and fewer
chances for intersection or collision. Railroads are 1D systems with far
lower death rates than roads and motor vehicles. Most rail deaths involve
intersecting and colliding with 2D vehicles: cars, busses, trucks. Few
train-train intersections occur.
3) Isolation, control. On system tracks, only system vehicles are allowed.
No exceptions. This lowers randomness, raises control.
4) Avoid intersections via tuned track height. Principle: keep vehicles
above or below problems. Elevated vehicles cannot intersect lower (or
higher) vehicles, and thus have far lower collision/crash rates and risk
than 2D surface vehicles, which intersect often. SkyTran pods ride 30 feet,
9 meters, above ground. Intersections and collisions are eliminated, except
with birds and in very unusual conditions.
5) Monorails. These are based on the above ideas, and are the safest form
of transport ever built. In over 100 years of use, only one person has died
using them www.monorails.org .
Vehicles move in only 1D (one dimension), with no cross traffic, not in 2D
with multiple lanes, as do most extant ground vehicles. Collisions are very
rare.
6) Suspended vehicles. Vehicles suspended under tracks can't hit items
atop tracks, cutting crash risk. Some monorails use suspended vehicles. When
trucks with very tall loads drive under tracks, stop using that section of
track until the danger is past. This gives several extra feet of clearance.
7) Narrow vehicles, tandem seats. Tandem seats halve collision risk.
Research shows that for a given vehicle type, for the most lethal types of
crashes (frontal: head-on, and nearly), collision frequency is mostly
proportional to vehicle width, and collision severity is partly proportional
to width. Safety is inversely proportional to width. Wider vehicles crash
more often, and more fully. Width kills.
8) Gentle shapes. Curved, high strength to weight, impact resistant forms,
outside and inside, with no protrusions, such as control knobs and buttons;
all control is verbal. At Cessna Aircraft, Doug Malewicki was a safety
observer in windshield bird proofing impact tests in which recently
anesthetized chickens were pneumatically launched into aircraft cockpits at
250 mph speeds to record, measure, and evaluate impact traits.
9) Strong, impact resistant materials. Composites can be
arranged/optimized to spread, dissipate, absorb impact forces better than
homogeneous materials.
10) Computer control. Vehicles that move under precise computer controlled
speed and spacing, not under highly variable human control, as do most
extant ground vehicles, should have far lower crash rates.
11) Sensors. Vehicles, tracks, and poles can be instrumented to warn of
problems.
12) Automatic braking systems: 1/2 G electromagnetic, and 6 G auxiliary
emergency mechanical, redundant brakes. It is easy to decelerate vehicles at
any rate up to and beyond what humans can safely sustain. Total braking
force is limited to 6 G, the same acceleration forces people pay to enjoy in
some amusement park rides, to avoid harming old, sick, and infirm users.
Brief, high, controlled braking forces are preferable to far higher,
uncontrolled crash forces. Mildly irritated users are better than injured or
dead ones. In a very severe situation, if a track section is suddenly
destroyed with no warning (bomb, oversize truck), vehicles following even as
close as one half second behind each other while traveling at 100 mph (a 72
feet spacing) have a high chance to stop in time. At only 6 g, a rate very
tolerable to properly restrained people, you can brake from 100 mph to zero
in about 55 feet. It may be hard to hold on to items, but you will be
uninjured.
13) Standard 4-point seatbelts, with interlocks. Vehicles won't move until
users are safely and securely belted in, as in some amusement park rides. At
least two firms sell airbag/seatbelt hybrids for aircraft: seatbelts that
inflate on impact to lower force concentration on users; inflation motion is
more away from users, instead of at and into them at 200 mph, as airbags do.
Airbags seem unneeded in pods.
14) Communications. Integral communication and entertainment system, with
screens as an option; likely IP (Internet Protocol) based, because it is
robust, redundant, and freely licensed so use is free, implementation is
cheap. May use track interiors as partial microwave waveguides. It will
always be easy for users to speak to others, including help. For
emergencies, a voice channel is enough; CCTV (closed circuit TV) is
unneeded. Pods have no buttons, all control is verbal.
15) Options, choice. Those who are insecure about trying new things, such
as SkyTran, are free to choose to travel by other means. They can wait as
long as they like, even years, while braver souls benefit from faster travel
and prove that it is fully safe and easy to use.
The above safety traits apply mostly to system users; users in vehicles.
But, some also apply to non-system users; those outside vehicles. Elevated
narrow vehicles radically improve their safety. Yearly, in the US, ground
vehicles kill about 5,000 (550 child) pedestrians, injure 80,000 (30,000
child). Daily, the US slaughter of animals is shocking. Estimates are one
million mammals killed a day, and countless billions of lower organisms. We
can end most of this.
Q: The vehicles are magnetically levitated, so
when the electricity fails, all will crash into the tracks at high speed,
destroying the vehicles, tracks, and causing massive injuries and death.
That means the power supply must be perfectly reliable, which is impossible.
So this system can't work.
No power supply can be perfectly reliable, all of the time. All magnetic
levitation vehicles need, and have, landing wheels, so that when they slow
down, and stop for boarding, and then accelerate again, they do not directly
contact, and scrape against, the track. Such wheels also work during power
loss, at any speed.
It is sometimes amusing when people think they have discovered an obvious
showstopper flaw with a moment's thought, even though experienced experts,
with advanced educations, have been perfecting a system for decades.
In addition, any Inductrack Passive MagLev system will stay levitated due
to its forward speed alone in the event of a full power outage. The
wheels will not contact the guideway until the SkyTran pod has slowed
down considerably and starts to lose the levitation strength caused by
forward motion.
Track Issues
Q: What track dimensions are needed for
lightweight, narrow, 2-seat suspended vehicles?
About 1 x 1 ft, 30 x 30 cm, wall thickness of 1/10 inch, 2.5 millimeters,
roughly square section, mildly radiused with built in torque tubes for
anti-twisting stability. Thin track is possible via poles spaced closely, 30
feet, 9 meters, apart. With poles spaced farther, tracks grow heavier,
deeper, more visually intrusive, and costlier. Of course, the vertical
support poles would also grow larger to support the additional weight.
Dr. Richard Post of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, LLNL, may have a
web/roll manufactured, laminated multi-ply sheet inductor geometry that can
be far thinner, lower mass and cost than the current separate copper coils
with ferrite inductance coils. It may allow somewhat thinner tracks.
Q: Even if vehicles go 100 mph, so what? Each
time someone stops, everyone behind them must stop and wait, so non-stop
travel is pointless or impossible.
No. Do vehicles filling up at gasoline stations, or exiting freeways, stop
traffic? No. Why? Because such vehicles are no longer on the road, blocking
it, but are off the road, doing other things, even while stopped. With
offline loading and unloading, vehicles do not block traffic. Offline
loading is used by many railways, and proposed for many PRT systems,
including SkyTran. It is an old idea. Non-stop travel is why freeways are so
useful, and why people like them. But, in many cities, congestion makes many
freeways into low speed parking lots once or twice a day. In some cities,
slow driving occurs for many hours a day.
Q: The vehicle/track system is planned to resist
150 mph winds. The UK rail system is seriously disabled every autumn by leaf
litter (mould), despite £9.2 billion being spent recently on modernizing one
line alone that promises speeds of 125 mph when done. What is the forecast
reliability of SkyTran as to intense heat, heavy rain, fog, ice, snow, and
leaf litter?
No transport system built yet can run in all weather. SkyTran comes closest.
Reliability is a main SkyTran goal. It is immune to fog, heavy rain, and
snow. It can zip over 4 meter snow drifts, or floodwaters, as easily as over
clean dry paved streets; it makes no difference. Tornados and strong
hurricanes/cyclones will stop SkyTran.
A strong advantage of suspended vehicles, narrow track, elevated track,
monorails, and magnetic levitation, is that each lowers vehicle and track
vulnerability to contamination, from precipitation (liquid, rain; frozen,
snow; mixed phase, sleet), biofouling (plant, animal), or deliberate acts of
vandalism or sabotage.
The track is enclosed from most angles, with only one narrow slot in the
bottom. The loaded surface is almost inaccessible, to most weather,
organisms, tree branches, falling wires, or other debris. Only under rare
conditions of high wind and vorticity can anything blow onto the loaded
surface, only to be shed promptly. Determined tiny crawling and flying
creatures can enter, though with little or no gain to them, they will leave
soon, or be blown out by normal vehicle motion. Casual vandals cannot access
the loaded surface. Determined vandals can, but it is far harder than in
other geometries, with far less reward, and is far easier to detect by
sensors. Cleaning needs are mostly eliminated via prevention.
Electromagnetic suspension, propulsion, and braking (magnetic levitation,
linear electric motors) do not touch surfaces, and work over even highly
fouled track.
Extremes of heat and cold need attention to material
contraction/expansion, as in any other engineered system of the last two
centuries.
Q: Systems in snowy areas will cost more, for
heating vehicles and portals, track covers to prevent snow build-up, etc.
No. Standard vehicles have climate control, electric powered. Heaters can
use resistance, small heat pumps, or another principle. Air conditioners can
work as in a car. Heat pumps run in reverse are air conditioners, so one
device can heat and cool. In the tropics, omit heaters.
On-demand transport systems eliminate most need to wait for rides, except
in unusual conditions. Consider car garages or carports: most people do not
wait around in them before entering their cars, and most such structures are
unheated. Portals are no more than covered stairs and platforms to access
vehicles and tracks, so they have no doors. This is analogous to covered
carports outside a house. Adding doors slows users, and raises costs. There
is no need to wait in portals. They need no heat. Heating buildings adds to
costs and pollution. Avoid it wherever it is unneeded.
Time spent waiting is time wasted, forever. Waiting is waste. The purpose
of transport is to move things. Users use transport to go, not to wait.
Motion matters. All else is waste. Waiting is expensive; it costs time, and
thus, money. The ideal transport system is all motion and no waiting. To get
as near the ideal as possible, eliminate everything that does not move
users. These are ideals. Reality is a bit messier. SkyTran is about
practical speed and efficiency.
Tracks are fully covered already and need no extra consideration for snow
or ice. See prior entry.
Q: Systems must be assessed in resistance to
vandalism, a persistent, rising, often life threatening problem in present
mass transit systems.
No transport system can void all threats. Relative to extant transport
systems, narrow vehicles, suspended vehicles, elevated track, low mass
monorails, and magnetic levitation have many inherent physical and
operational advantages to eliminate many types of vandalism, and reduce
other types, and the severity of, incentives and rewards for it. Poles,
tracks and vehicles can be instrumented to sense problems, and automatically
notify officials of time, position, and magnitude. Serious, casual vandalism
is very hard. Design for abuse.
SkyTran team member Jerry Fass has given this issue long and deep thought.
He lives and works in a neighborhood on the edge of a US inner-city, often
travels in the inner-city, has friends and does volunteer work there, and
sees many interesting and instructive examples of vandalism as he waits for
busses, walks past barbed wire fences, nods respectfully to various
watchdogs, or pauses to listen reflectively to the mournful wailing and
howling of police sirens, or the creepy staccato rhythms of recreational and
working gunfire on summer nights and New Year's Eve.
Q: The website doesn't detail nodes and
merge/de-merge situations common in urban use. Systems must be able to fit
in constricted city spaces common in UK and much of Europe, and in major
conurbations in the US. Concerns about spatial needs of nodes must be
addressed. The website shows how SkyTran has limited impact in visual
intrusion on a straight section, yet a need exists to have an idea of what
junctions look like and how they work.
All these issues are well thought out. Some will be patented and cannot be
shown. Merge/de-merge is fast and simple, via thin tracks and track engaging
subsystems, thin, low mass vehicles, and track-passive vehicle-active
electromagnetic switching.
Compactness is a main SkyTran goal: it is highly optimized for flexibility
and tight right-of-way and installation needs. Junctions can look like two
straight portals, crossed, atop each other.
The SkyTran website is incomplete since no funds exist to advance work on
it. It is done fully by Doug Malewicki in his spare time, with occasional,
voluntary contributions from other people.
Q: Tracks must handle speeds of 150 mph in
suburban/inter-urban use for systems to compete with trains. Systems must
show clear speed/safety/accessibility advantages over all other transport
modes, except long distance air travel.
Why? These are double standards, and false. Most other PRT systems fail
these tests, by far larger margins than SkyTran. Yet, SkyTran can beat other
systems on all such variables, and many more. Moderately detailed
calculations suggest that SkyTran can easily have 150 mph cruise speeds, or
even 250 mph, with subtle modifications.
Yet, higher speed is unneeded to compete with trains, or aircraft, at
regional ranges. For two cities, departure and destination, with full
SkyTran grids, linked by one SkyTran track, point-to-point trip times can
beat jet aircraft for trips of 400 miles at 100 mph intercity speed, 600
miles at 150 mph intercity speed. The long times needed to get to and from,
and to enter and exit, airports greatly lowers the average speed of aircraft
trips.
This makes SkyTran a useful transport system of regional scope in large
nations, and national scope in small nations. For longer trips, with extant
technology, aircraft make more sense and are more efficient: because ground
vehicles move at low altitude in denser air, aircraft move at high altitude
in thinner air.
SkyTran safety and accessibility can be equal to, or better than, all
alternatives, unless badly written laws cripple efforts to optimize such
traits, and force suboptimization.
Good luck.
Good bye.
Jerry Fass
SkyTran: faster, cheaper, safer, leaner, cleaner, greener!
A lean, lightweight, flexible, heavy duty, packet switching network that
moves people.
http://www.skytran.net/
Thanks for starting to dig into our
extensive website. We have a section addressing long distance Inter-city
SkyTran travel at:
http://www.skytran.net/03Economics/s11.htm. Reading that section will
greatly help your insight into what you are trying to do by applying
SkyTran.
This is
very important, as we don't have to be capable of 300 mph to get people
from one end to the other of your 130 mile route in the SAME EXACT travel
TIME (or faster) as the proposed 300 mph train!
I just decided to paste in a version of
that average speed spreadsheet with inputs for your route conditions (you
can put in the exact parameters that the 300 mph people are claiming into
our AVERAGE SPEED CALCULATOR in order to see more precise travel time
performance comparisons).
Group Transit - Average Speed
Calculator |
by Douglas J. Malewicki, AeroVisions,
Inc., March 4, 2003 |
|
INPUTS |
|
Calculated
Conversions |
|
Length of route (L): |
130
|
Miles |
686,400
|
feet |
Number of stations (N): |
6
|
# of accel & decel
segments: |
5
|
(N-1) |
Dwell time at each station (DT): |
120
|
seconds |
|
|
Max cruise speed (Vmph): |
300
|
MPH |
440
|
ft/sec |
accel and decel g level (a): |
.125
|
g's (1g = 32.2
ft/sec^2) |
4.025
|
ft/sec^2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Time to accel to max cruise speed (t): |
109.31
|
seconds [formula is t = speed/accel] |
Distance used to accel to cruise speed(s):
|
24,049
|
feet
[formula is s = 1/2 accel (t^2)] |
|
|
|
|
|
Total time in accel and decel (sum of t): |
1,093
|
seconds [formula is t*2*number of segments] |
|
Total distance in accel & decel (sum of
s): |
240,497
|
feet [formula is
s*2*number of segments] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Remaining distance at max cruise: |
445,903
|
feet
[formula is L - sum of s] |
|
|
Time spent at max cruise speed: |
1,013
|
seconds [formula is (L - sum of s) / V] |
Extra time unloading/loading at stations: |
720
|
seconds [formula is # of stations *
dwell time at each] |
|
|
|
|
|
Total time for trip (Ttotal): |
2,826
|
seconds [Sum of all
accel, cruise, decel & dwell times] |
Ttotal: |
47.11
|
minutes |
|
|
Ttotal: |
0.785
|
hours |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True average speed (VAVEmph): |
165.57
|
MPH
[formula is
length of route/total trip time] |
|
|
|
|
|
15 minute Average waiting
time: |
900
|
seconds [half of the 30 minutes between
trains??] |
Realistic trip time |
3,726
|
seconds |
|
|
|
62.11
|
minutes |
|
|
|
1.035
|
hours |
|
|
New average speed: |
125.58
|
MPH |
|
|
The real difference between SkyTran
personalized transit and any old-fashioned form of GROUP transit is all that
stopping and starting. The fact that 40 people want off at station #2 and 45
people want on at that same station means you HAVE to stop at each and every
station along the route. That costs you time and that lost time kills your
AVERAGE speed! SkyTran is little two seat pods - would be crazy to stop and
start at every station along your route. You go straight to your final
destination station NON-STOP! We have been talking 150 mph NON-STOP
intercity! Half the speed of your 300 mph group carrying train and we can
get there as quick! (We are also talking to an amusement park group about a
zero to 300 mph to zero ride - so the technology lends itself to that. High
speeds are just a terrible consumer of energy to move objects fast in dense
sea level air).
Anyway the calculator tells that with 1/8th
g accelerations and decelerations, a 300 mph cruise and 6 stations, that
your average speed for the 130 miles is 165 mph.
SkyTran's Inter-City 150 mph non-stop cruise speed isn't much different is
it?
Furthermore, when you arrive at a SkyTran
station you get in and go. Plenty of SkyTran vehicles waiting for you -
just like at any Taxi stand. No waiting for a scheduled big group thingie
to arrive and no concern about being there 10 or 15 minutes early to
insure you don't miss it. IF I assume you get to the big group train
station 15 minutes early - that also COSTS you part of your travel time
and thus average speed for the 130 mile trip degrades to 125 mph
(on the same 300 mph capable train!)
Like I said it takes some study to grasp all
this. I won't complicate it further by trying to teach you right away why
the capacity per hour of SkyTran in comparison to such group travel
devices is huge. Next time. I do want to point out that SkyTran stations
are also very inexpensive - no $7 million edifices required. You can put
a hundred along that same 130 miles - wherever it might be convenient for
users. Since they are all offline, none of these
stations effect travel time. (Read the "Light rail is bogus" section to
understand offline better.)
Again, thank you for your interest,
Douglas J. Malewicki
to BrainFAQ
part 1 - part 2
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