First SkyTran Systems
Early on, we can estimate what the costs in a mass production environment might be and those are the figures we use throughout for all the economic analysis in the next section. For curiosity's sake we now will take a quick look at at the estimated costs for two example prototype systems. These would have to be mostly hand built with minimum tooling. Design and engineering costs are separate and not amortized in these figures.
Case 1- City of Irvine, California Guideway Demonstration Project
The first table is for a proposed 4 mile long Guideway Demonstration Project with 12 stations - an airport to business area transportation system in the city of Irvine, California. We would design the system's exit lane transition distances and deceleration/acceleration distances for future 100 mph travel utility and expansion, but since it would be our prototype, we would initially operate at slow test speeds of 25 mph instead of 100 mph in conjunction with large 2.3 second separation times between vehicles (rather than the eventual 1/2 second spacing between vehicles).
As safety systems were fully proved at these low speeds and large separation times, the SkyTran prototype would be incrementally increased while simultaneously tightening up the computer controlled time separation between vehicles - perhaps on a monthly basis. Of course, our initial customers would got bored quickly having to travel at a slow 25 mph, but we can console them that this is already faster than the proven 15 to 20 mph average speeds of all existing Light Rail Systems.
SkyTran Prototype Speed (MPH) 25 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Time to travel 4 miles (MINUTES) 9.6 8 6 4.8 4 3.4 3 2.7 2.4 Note that the City of Irvine is currently expecting to pay $125 million just for pre-construction elements.
QUANTITY | UNIT COSTS FOR PROTOTYPE | PROTOTYPE SUB TOTALS | UNIT COSTS IN MASS PRODUCTION | SUBTOTALS IN MASS PRODUCTION | |
Vehicles | 620 | $60,000 each | $37 million | $6,000 each | $3.7 million |
Track | 4 Miles | $10 million per mile | $40 million | $1 million per mile | $4 million |
Station Modules | 48 for 12 two way station sets | $20,000 each | $1 million | $5,000 each | $0.3 million |
Grand Totals |
$78 million | $8 MILLION |
Up to 500 vehicles could be traveling at once with an 84 foot spacing between vehicles (2.3 seconds apart at 25 mph). The remaining 120 vehicles are intended to be in dwell at each station set. To minimize waiting we always want to have at least 5 empty vehicles in place and ready to go at each station (120 in dwell). The maximum capacity of this system would be 3,000 four mile trips per hour or 6,000 passengers per hour if two people were riding each vehicle. In the future using the 100 mph capability, the system capacity would rise to 12,500 four mile solo trips per hour with the same number of vehicles. Since all the stations are off line from the SkyTran freeway a passenger never slows down until he approaches his selected station.
Case 2- Orange County, California Light-Rail Replacement Project
This second example compares the 28 mile long, $1.8 billion , elevated light-rail system recently proposed for Orange County, California to a SkyTran replacement system. (This proposed Urban rail project would run between the InterModal Transportation Centers in the cities of Fullerton and Irvine and is intended to carry 60,000 passengers per day.) Because this old fashioned type system must stop at every station, it will only average 22 mph, even though its cruise speed is 55 mph. Thus, even a 25 mph SkyTran system would be a faster way to travel.
QUANTITY | UNIT COSTS FOR PROTOTYPE | PROTOTYPE SUB TOTALS | UNIT COSTS IN MASS PRODUCTION | SUBTOTALS IN MASS PRODUCTION | |
Vehicles | 3,760 | $60,000 each | $226 million | $6,000 each | $23 million |
Track | 28 Miles | $10 million per mile | $280 million | $1 million per mile | $28 million |
Station Modules | 96 for 24 two way station sets | $20,000 each | $2 million | $5,000 each | $0.5 million |
Grand Totals |
$508 million | $52 MILLION |
Up to 3,520 vehicles could be travelling at once with an 84 foot spacing between vehicles (2.3 seconds apart at 25 mph). The remaining 240 vehicles are intended to be in dwell at each station set. To minimize waiting we always want to have at least 5 empty vehicles in place and ready to go at each station in each direction (240 in dwell). The maximum capacity of this system would be 8,800 ten mile trips per hour or 17,600 passengers per hour if two people were riding each vehicle. In the future, using the 100 mph capability, the system capacity would rise to 35,200 ten mile trips per hour with the same number of vehicles. Since all the stations are off line from the SkyTran freeway a passenger never slows down until he approaches his selected station.
Travel Time improvements as prototype SkyTran speed is enhanced to nominal |
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SkyTran Prototype Speed (MPH) |
25 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | Elevated
Light Rail's 22 mph |
Surface
Light Rail's 17 mph |
Time to travel 10 miles (MINUTES) | 24 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6 | 27.3 | 35.3 |
Time to travel all 28 miles (MINUTES) | 67.2 | 56 | 42 | 33.6 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 18.7 | 16.8 | 76.3 (1 hr 6 min) |
98.8 (1 hr 38 min) |
Comments on prototype SkyTran systems testing and concern for safety of the user
The SkyTran, Incorporated web site devotes several pages to the safety benefits of overhead travel and high g braking. Go to SAFETY .
The first (and only the first) prototype system will be brought into full speed operation carefully and slowly, step by step. A new fighter jet does nor break the sound barrier on its first test flight. Nor would the new lower flight cost X-34 reusable manned spacecraft be allowed to carry a billion dollar payload to orbit on its first flight. However, it does not take 5 years from first flight to full certification......
Among other things, the SkyTran inventor was at one time a Senior Flight Test Engineer for Cessna Aircraft's Military -Twin Division involved in all sorts of different flight tests to satisfy FAA (Federal Aviation Agency) requirements.