10. Importance of minimizing per mile track costs.

Step 10.

Importance of Minimizing Per Mile Costs in Transit Systems

by Douglas J. Malewicki, Inventor of SkyTran and founder of SkyTran, Inc., December 26, 1999.

Given a Fixed Budget of $1.35 Billion Dollars:

If the cost of each mile of two way track is:	Then you could buy this many miles of two way track with your $1.35 billion dollars:	*And your maximum useful HOURLY CAPACITY in passenger-miles would be:**	Which buys you this much capacity compared to the 35 mile system:
$38.57million	35	252,000	100%
$19.29 million	70	504,000	200%
$13.50 million	100	720,000	286%
$9.00 million	150	1,080,000	429%
$6.75 million	200	1,440,000	571%
$5.40 million	250	1,800,000	714%
$4.50 million	300**	2,160,000	857%
$3.38 million	400	2,880,000	1,143%
$2.70 million	500	3,600,000	1,429%
$2.25 million	600	4,032,000	1,714%
$1.93 million	700	5,040,000	2,000%
$1.69 million	800	5,760,000	2,286%
$1.50 million	900***	6,480,000	2,571%
$1.35 million	1000	7,200,000	2,857%
$1.00 million	1350	9,720,000	3,857%

*HOURLY CAPACITY is calculated for vehicles spaced 2 seconds apart, which are traveling at a steady non-stop 25 mph. It is further assumes that all the vehicles are carrying the full capacity of two people.

**This is how many miles of two way Mini Robot Kiddy Train track that could be purchased with $1.35 billion. The ability to build 300 miles instead of just 35 miles for the same budget means 8 complete 35 mile long sets of of Mini Robot Kiddy trains could be networked together to provide much more useful service to community members. This system would have the capacity to provide 216,000 ten mile long trips each hour!

***If you could further lower the Mini Robot Kiddy Train system to below $2 million per mile with clever creative engineering (1/3rd of the estimated conservative $4.5 million cost for a single mile), then capacity benefits and ability to go anywhere at a non-stop 25 mph to any destination in the Greater Phoenix Area becomes a reality!

Conclusion: This hypothetical Mini Robot Kiddy Train represents a simple, straight forward level of technology that sharp High School students could implement right now. Upon making such an observation, it then becomes 100% safe to predict that 100 years from now the only light rails in existence will be the remaining examples found in nostalgia museums. Even today, light rail is not practical or cost effective. It is on its way out. The only question is merely how SOON will it be rendered fully obsolete and relegated to those museums?

Some alternatives (with comments) to replace the cartoon-like, two seat automated, 25 mph, non-stop, kiddy train vehicles are presented here:

Click on any thumbnail picture to see a larger view:
	CYBERCAB represents a cute, futuristic look. Nice feature would be easy sit down entry and auto closing weather protection. HAS to be a 4 wheeled vehicle to ride the tracks. Also should be 2 seat side by side.
	GEM CAR is a golf cart for two that would be easy to fully enclosed. The Kiddy Train machines would not require any steering because the track would provide all guidance (requires flanged wheels). Vehicle would take all power from the track - so the high weight penalty of lead acid batteries would be eliminated and plenty of power for steady 25 mph would be available. (However, not a bad idea to leave one battery on board in case of a city wide power outage. Would enable everyone to get to an exit under power.
	Recently discontinued FORD TH!NK with its rudimentary weather protection. Obviously must add low cost air conditioning and heating systems to all Kiddy Train Vehicles. Besides steering - throttles and brake controls also would be eliminated - the computers do all that - passengers just sit back and relax for the non-stop ride to their selected destination station.
	EBike Touring (from Lee Iacocca's company). If people were willing to ride electric two wheel bikes on the elevated track, then system costs would come way down. Talk about a light weight structure! All people in single file only on a restrained with mini road (NO passing and all locked in electronically to a precision max cruise of 25 mph. A mess whenever one person falls over.
	Inventor Dean Kamen right) and his Segway. Put a bigger motor on that baby so it can travel at 25 mph and use an inductive electrical pickup from the track for power instead of heavy batteries. If he can make that crazy thing self stable I am sure he could figure out all the collision avoidance and safety systems required for inline 2 second spacing automatic 25 mph travel. Obviously, no opportunity for heating or air conditioning. Probably would have to fully enclose the elevated track for rider protection in nasty weather. Track would be more visually intrusive and cost more, but still pretty minimal. Leave the battery in and use your personal Segway to get you the rest of way to home or work?? (That is called DUAL MODE.)
	The RUNNER 168. The Taiwanese are already selling a Segway like machine. No fancy computer controls. Just 3 wheels for inherent stability. Probably $750 instead of $6,000.
	Not as cool technically, but it sure looks almost like a Segway!
	SCOOT fold up scooter concept. Maybe something useful for the younger set to get them from the Kiddy Train station to their final destination fast!
Conclusion (again) - Elevated Kiddy Train variants in any form can provide faster commuting for more people per hour than Light Rail and do it for 5% to 12% of the cost. Safety, especially for outsiders, would be 100%, instead of Light Rail's dismal killing record.