Long Term SkyTran Future
How long will our currently envisioned SkyTran System be suitable?Probably 40 years maximum. After 10 years, emerging technologies will start appearing that may be more practical and cost effective. These can be lighter, stronger, tougher materials; more efficient MagLev linear motors; far cheaper and robust variable frequency 3 phase controllers; super low cost micromachined sensors systems, etc.
After 20 years, these new technologies will be maturing and taking hold. After 40 years, the SkyTran system will need serious hardware and software updates. If Moore's law continues to hold as it has for the last decades, it tells us to expect that if we have $2,000 computers running at 500 MHz now, that by the year 2015 the same cheap PC will be operating a 1,000 times faster or at 500,000MHz (500 Gigahertz)! (Explore the "Goodnight March 31, 2052" IEEE paper in section 4 for more insight into the far future possibilities.)
Also, suitability for such transportation will change with each decade of progress. It is the nature of the human animal to resist change for as long as possible. Some will strongly oppose a 100 mph cruise as being "too fast " for safety. Or they may deem ˝ g decelerations/accelerations as "too much". Or they may think that the extremely rare emergency 6-g deceleration braking stop from 100 mph (that is over in less than one second) will damage their bodies (Normal healthy humans can perform basic control tasks for 4 minutes while subjected to a steady 6 g's. Amusement park roller coaster fans PAY to be able to enjoy short term 5 and 6 g accelerations! SkyTran, of course, won't have the associated twists, loops and turns - just straight linear accelerations/decelerations.)
Of course, ten years later after finally adapted to using the SkyTran system on a daily basis, these same people may well be complaining "Why isn't the SkyTran company bumping up the speeds to 125 or 150 mph - so we don't have to waste so much time?" This eventual desire will affect two important design factors that perhaps should be considered now. The track radius of curvature for turns and exit/merge transitions needs to be large enough to be comfortable. Also, the distance for deceleration/acceleration off to a station and subsequently back onto the grid needs to be long enough to keep decelerations/accelerations at or below the ˝ g maximum.
Thus, some of the important decisions for the future must be made now. Such as:
- Either the turn radii and deceleration/acceleration distances are increased now (rather than expensively retrofitted in the future)
- Or, the deceleration/acceleration limits will have to be increased to .78 g in order to attain 125 mph (or up to 1.125 g in order to attain 150 mph) in the same available distance that ˝ g yields 100 mph.
